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December 6, 2018

Now that the Golden Globe nominations have arrived, certain films' Oscar hopes are looking better than ever, while others seem all but dead.

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association's picks for Best Picture don't always line up with the Academy's. But it's almost always the case that the eventual Oscar winner for Best Picture is nominated in one of the two top categories at the Golden Globes in January. Since 2000, that has been true every year except one: 2006, when Crash won Best Picture despite not being nominated at the Globes.

With that in mind, it looks like First Man may have to kiss its Best Picture hopes goodbye, as Damien Chazelle's Neil Armstrong biopic was shut out of the Best Picture - Drama category after bombing at the box office in October. That's also true of Widows, another box office bomb that didn't receive a single Globe nomination.

Sasha Stone from Awards Daily points out that the Golden Globes' director field is often indicative of the Oscars' Best Picture category, with The Shape of Water's Guillermo del Toro earning that prize in 2018. The films nominated for best director this year are A Star Is Born, Roma, Green Book, BlacKkKlansman, and Vice. Notably, First Man and Widows didn't make it into this category, nor did Green Book, despite earning five nominations total.

Meanwhile, the producers behind Black Panther and Vice should be feeling a lot better about their Oscar chances. The former film picked up a Best Picture - Drama nomination amid widespread speculation that it will be the first Marvel film to make it into the equivalent category at the Oscars, while the Dick Cheney biopic picked up six nominations, giving it some serious momentum as the race to the Oscars continues. Brendan Morrow

10:55 a.m.

The swamp may be dirty, but it pays well.

The United States contains 3,142 counties, and the five of them with the highest median income levels are all in the Washington, D.C., metro area, the Census Bureau reports, using data from 2013 to 2017. They are Loudoun, Fairfax, and Arlington Counties in Virginia, as well as Falls Church City, Virginia, and Howard County, Maryland.

The lowest income counties tend to be found in the Southeast region, especially in rural areas. The Census Bureau lists McCreary, Bell, and Harlan Counties in Kentucky with Holmes County, Mississippi, and Sumter County, Alabama, as five of the lowest median income counties nationwide.
Bonnie Kristian

10:54 a.m.

Yet another batch of awards nominees brings the Oscars' likely Best Picture list into even greater focus.

The 2019 Critics Choice Awards nominees, which are selected by the Broadcast Film Critics Association, were announced Monday morning. The group's Best Picture picks are Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite, First Man, Green Book, If Beale Street Could Talk, Mary Poppins Returns, Roma, A Star Is Born, and Vice, per The Hollywood Reporter.

Based on how the awards season has been shaking out, don't be surprised if the Oscars' nominees for Best Picture are essentially this exact list; every one of the films here was nominated at the Golden Globes last week except for First Man. Since 2000, the Oscars' eventual Best Picture winner has been nominated at the Critics Choice Awards every single year, and the two groups often pick the same film.

The category of Best Actor consists of Christian Bale (Vice), Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate), Ryan Gosling (First Man), Ethan Hawke (First Reformed), Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody), and Viggo Mortensen (Green Book), while the Best Actress nominees are Yalitza Aparicio (Roma), Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns), Glenn Close (The Wife), Toni Collette (Hereditary), Olivia Colman (The Favourite), Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born), and Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?).

The Favourite received the most nominations: 14, while the second most nominated film was Black Panther with 12. First Man also received 10 nominations after being mostly shut out at the Golden Globes. Read the full list of nominees at The Hollywood Reporter. Brendan Morrow

10:39 a.m.

A pair of reports published Monday by Gallup and Pew Research show global interest in migration is rising while support for it is falling.

The Gallup survey found about 750 million people, 15 percent of the world's adults, said in the 2015 to 2017 polling period they would like to permanently move to another country. That's up from 13 percent in 2010 to 2012, though slightly lower than the 16 percent interest in 2007 to 2009. Interest in migration is on an upward trend in every region but Oceania and Asia, where it has held steady since 2010.


(Gallup)

Pew's report, meanwhile, found a majority in 27 nations would prefer to maintain or lower the number of immigrants permitted to come to their country. Spain was the only nation polled in which more than a quarter of respondents said more immigrants should be allowed to move in, though the United States was a close second at 24 percent.

Concern about emigration is also high, Pew found, with a 27-nation median of 64 percent saying "people leaving their country for jobs in other countries is a very or moderately big problem." These emigration worries were around 80 percent or higher in Greece, Spain, Hungary, Italy, Tunisia, Argentina, and Mexico. Bonnie Kristian

10:37 a.m.

In an embarrassing public rejection, President Trump's reported pick to replace White House Chief of Staff John Kelly has turned him down.

Vice President Mike Pence's chief of staff, Nick Ayers, was reportedly Trump's only choice to replace Kelly to the point that an announcement of his selection had been drafted, The New York Times reports. But on Sunday, Ayers said he would not take the job and would instead return home to Georgia.

So why did Ayers turn down what should be a highly-desired job? Here are some possible explanations.

1. The Times and CNN report that Trump asked Ayers to commit for two years, but he was only willing to take the job on an interim basis. When they couldn't agree on a timeline, Ayers decided to decline. CNN notes that Ayers has young kids, and thus didn't want to stay in the White House until 2020.

2. Conservative columnist John Podhoretz speculates that Ayers wanted to avoid being in the White House during the impending wave of Democratic investigations and possible indictments, per Talking Points Memo. Politico reports that Ayers plans to run for office in Georgia, and perhaps he sensed that staying on staff amid such chaos could only hurt those chances.

3. Similarly, The Washington Post reports that Ayers was "skeptical of taking the job based on the challenges" his predecessors, Reince Priebus and Kelly, faced. Kelly and Trump reportedly stopped speaking in recent days.

4. The Times reports that Ayers, whose net worth is more than $12 million, may have wanted to avoid "scrutiny of his personal finances." Ayers is now reportedly going to make a whole lot of money running a pro-Trump Super PAC.

5. Finally, The Times' Maggie Haberman writes that Ayers was essentially being used by those opposed to Kelly to push him out of the job, and "toward the end, he may have realized that." Brendan Morrow

10:07 a.m.

A video published on Facebook shows a group of New York City police officers violently yanking a baby away from his mother while attempting to arrest her at a social services office in Brooklyn. The clip was uploaded Friday and gathered more than 200,000 views over the weekend, prompting a police department review of the incident and outrage from local political leaders.

The encounter reportedly began when Jazmine Headley, 23, sat on the floor in the office waiting room because all the seats were filled. "The security guard, I guess she came over and told her she couldn't sit there. So she's like, 'Where am I going to sit?'" said Nyashia Ferguson, who captured the footage. "She was like, 'What is the crime? What did I do wrong?'" Ferguson added. "And then it just escalated."

In the video, Headley is seen on the floor, desperately holding on to her 1-year-old son while a group of about five officers and guards try to restrain her and pull her child away. "They're hurting my son!" she shouts as the waiting room crowd protests. One officer takes out a yellow stun gun, waiving it at bystanders and pointing it at Headley's face.

Headley was ultimately arrested and charged with resisting arrest, criminal trespass, obstructing governmental administration, and, incredibly, acting in a manner injurious to a child. Her mother said as of Sunday she was still in jail and had not been allowed to see her son.

Watch the disturbing video below. Bonnie Kristian

9:28 a.m.

In case there was any doubt that 2018 has lasted approximately 200 years, take a look at the Time "Person of the Year" shortlist. It is ... exhausting:

Remember the North Korea summit, a few short lifetimes ago? Or the Royal Wedding, which feels like a distant, hazy dream? And how about March for Our Lives, which either took place in March or the Paleoarchean Era (both seem equally plausible)?

There is only one takeaway from all this: Make 2019 the year of the nap. Jeva Lange

9:22 a.m.

When President Trump makes a false claim, he doesn't just do so once or twice. He repeats it over and over again, even after being corrected.

Nobody knows that better than the fact-checkers at The Washington Post, who have meticulously examined virtually every one of the president's claims and in November found that he made more than 6,000 false statements since being inaugurated. This has inspired the Post to introduce an entirely new rating for their fact-checker section, which normally operates on a one-to-four Pinocchio scale: the Bottomless Pinocchio.

This, the Post explains, is a rating given out to "politicians who repeat a false claim so many times that they are, in effect, engaging in campaigns of disinformation." In other words, it's for Trump, who the Post writes is "not merely making gaffes or misstating things" but is "purposely injecting false information into the national conversation."

In order to receive a Bottomless Pinocchio, a politician must repeat a claim that has received a rating of three or four Pinocchios at least 20 times. Don't be surprised to see Trump rack up the Bottomless Pinocchio ratings, considering according to the Post, 14 of his false statements - one of which has been repeated 87 times - already qualify. Read more about the new rating at The Washington Post. Brendan Morrow

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