survey says
December 17, 2018

Just four in 10 Americans — 38 percent — said they'd vote re-elect President Trump in new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll results published Monday.

But those numbers sound like good news for the president with a little historical context, NBC reports: They're quite close to the support former Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama pulled after their party suffered midterm defeats in 1994 and 2010, respectively. Both went on to win re-election handily.

Still, the survey found a key difference between Trump's standing now and Obama's position eight years ago. Only 10 percent of respondents said "President Trump has gotten the message from the elections and is making the necessary adjustments" to his governing agenda. Fully 35 percent said the same of Obama in 2010.

Some, but not all, of that difference may be attributed to a larger proportion (31 percent in 2018 to 15 percent in 2010) claiming the midterms were not a message to the president at all. That was Trump's own argument after the midterms; before the election, he said he was on the ballot in a "certain way," but after GOP losses in the House Trump noted he "wasn't on the ballot." Bonnie Kristian

December 11, 2018

Americans are increasingly unhappy, a new CNN poll published Tuesday finds, with how President Trump and Special Counsel Robert Mueller are handling the investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election. Approval for both has fallen since CNN asked the same questions in October:


Intriguingly, while each man's ratings vary along predictably partisan lines, Trump's performance in regards to the probe is a low point even for Republicans. GOP respondents ranked Trump well — often 80 percent support or higher — for his performance on other specific issues and for his presidency in general. But on the Russia probe, a bare majority of 51 percent approve of Trump, a record low.

See the full poll results here. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percent. Bonnie Kristian

December 10, 2018

A pair of reports published Monday by Gallup and Pew Research show global interest in migration is rising while support for it is falling.

The Gallup survey found about 750 million people, 15 percent of the world's adults, said in the 2015 to 2017 polling period they would like to permanently move to another country. That's up from 13 percent in 2010 to 2012, though slightly lower than the 16 percent interest in 2007 to 2009. Interest in migration is on an upward trend in every region but Oceania and Asia, where it has held steady since 2010.


Pew's report, meanwhile, found a majority in 27 nations would prefer to maintain or lower the number of immigrants permitted to come to their country. Spain was the only nation polled in which more than a quarter of respondents said more immigrants should be allowed to move in, though the United States was a close second at 24 percent.

Concern about emigration is also high, Pew found, with a 27-nation median of 64 percent saying "people leaving their country for jobs in other countries is a very or moderately big problem." These emigration worries were around 80 percent or higher in Greece, Spain, Hungary, Italy, Tunisia, Argentina, and Mexico. Bonnie Kristian

November 26, 2018

The 2006 midterms saw a new Democratic majority in the House of Representatives, while the GOP still held the White House via then-President George W. Bush. Polled by Gallup about the prospect of inter-party cooperation, Americans were reasonably optimistic, with about half expecting cooperation from each side.

No more. Posed the same question in a Gallup poll published Monday about the coming divided government, only a third said they expect President Trump to cooperate with House Democrats, and even fewer anticipate Democrats will work with Trump.


Lowered expectations for bipartisanship were consistent across party lines. Read here at The Week why gridlock might not be so bad. Bonnie Kristian

November 12, 2018

A new Axios/Survey Monkey poll finds Republicans and Democrats alike struggle to use positive descriptors of people in the other party.

A majority of Democrats say Republicans are racist, bigoted, sexist, and ignorant; while a majority of Republicans say Democrats are spiteful. Nearly half — 49 percent — of Republicans also said Democrats are ignorant, which is within the three-point margin of error of to be a majority statement as well.


Asked about positive descriptors, results were similarly bleak. Fewer than 5 percent of either party would characterize people in the other as fair, thoughtful, or kind. However, fewer than a quarter of each side were willing to make the leap to labeling their political opponents outright "evil." Bonnie Kristian

November 5, 2018

Just half of Americans report they have faith in U.S. democracy in a new Axios/Survey Monkey poll conducted late last month and reported Monday. Nearly one in 10 say they never had faith in democracy in the first place, and 37 percent report they once had faith but have now lost it.


Axios and Survey Monkey have asked the same question six times since October 2016 and found a rise in democratic faith around the presidential election that was erased over the following 12 months with steady numbers since.

While no demographic group expressed more than 70 percent faith in democracy, some demographics were substantially more likely to express it than others. White people and Hispanics, Republicans, suburbanites, men, the elderly, the college educated, and supporters of President Trump were the most likely to say they have faith in democracy now.

By contrast, black people, women, voters aged 18-34, urbanites, those with a high school education or less, Gary Johnson voters in 2016, nonvoters, and political independents were disproportionately likely to say they never had faith.

And self-identified liberal Democrats were the demographic most likely, at 55 percent, to say they have lost their faith in American democracy. Bonnie Kristian

October 8, 2018

The Republican Party has long cast itself as a bulwark protecting "real America" against Washingtonian overreach — in recent years, think the Tea Party or President Trump's pledge to "drain the swamp" — but new Gallup poll results published Monday show the GOP is rapidly embracing the federal government.

This time last year, just 47 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning respondents told Gallup they were satisfied with "the way the nation is being governed." This year, that figure has surged to 72 percent.

Unsurprisingly, satisfaction with governance is markedly partisan. Just 10 percent of Democrats have expressed this satisfaction since Trump took office, and Republican satisfaction hovered at a similar level throughout former President Barack Obama's tenure. However, the divergence was not so dramatic during the early years of the George W. Bush administration; in 2001 and 2002, Democrats' satisfaction was in the 40s, only about 40 percentage points lower than Republicans' record high of 82 percent. Bonnie Kristian

September 17, 2018

Americans on both sides of the aisle are worried about meddling in the midterm elections, a new NPR/Marist poll finds, and they're convinced it won't help their party.

Asked which party potential voter fraud would favor in the midterms, 77 percent of Democrats said it would help Republicans, and 67 percent of Republicans said it would favor Democrats. Independents were split, but slightly more (41 to 36 percent, with a 4 percent margin of error throughout the survey) believe the GOP would benefit.

Party affiliation also corresponded with disagreement on what sort of meddling is likely to happen. A majority of Democrats are suspicious of foreign interference from Russia or another country, while Republicans are overwhelmingly concerned with a more domestic threat: voter suppression or illicit voting, especially by immigrants who are not U.S. citizens.

As NPR notes, there's no evidence of foreign manipulation of U.S. ballots (Russian election interference techniques were more indirect). And many of the very few improper votes that are cast each election are accidental, like the Texas woman sentenced to five years in prison for unintentionally violating the law by voting while on probation.

The survey also found a significant split on whether "many votes" will simply not be counted. While most white voters aren't concerned this may happen, a majority of non-white voters think it will.

All told, nearly 4 in 10 Americans say our elections are not fair. The poll was conducted Sept. 5-9 and reached 949 adults over the phone. See the full results here. Bonnie Kristian

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